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What exodus? Seattle kept growing during pandemic
From my little Seattle centric real estate world, it felt like a busy year. I heard all the stories of people fleeing cities across the US but when you look at the data, Seattle’s population grew +1.1% over the last year. As this article in the Seattle Times says, “not a record-breaking year, to be sure, but still respectable.” Seattle bucks the trend of just about every other top 20 metro in the country with this population growth.
This matters to all of us in the region because it shows the continued interest and desirability of the Seattle area for investment and job seekers.
The future is still bright for Seattle metro and our state and this is just one indication of that strong economic future.
Pending Sales up +15% vs LY!
I’m still amazed at the residential housing market’s resiliency through all that his happening in our economy.
Cliff notes below from our designated broker, Laura Smith –
Expect more new listings. Expect more new pending sales. Historically March to July are the five months with the most new listings (10 year average for King County Residential shown in table below). The coronavirus likely delayed new listings by 45 to 60 days. What will happen with more new listings? More new sales. My guess is starting in July number of sales in 2020 will exceed the number of sales in 2019.
King County Residential Only for the weeks ended Wednesday (5/27/20):
Summary (details below):
The number of new pending sales in the last seven days exceeded the same week in prior year.
- Expect next week for sales to be between 80% and 100% of the prior year.
- Memorial Day under the stay order had less impact on sales than Memorial Day with no stay order.
Number of King county pending sales increased for the last nine weeks:266, 309, 367, 460, 489, 508, 598, 622, and 645.
We need inventory! Inventory is down over 40% and sales are equal to a year ago.
Months Supply of Inventory is low enough to make multiple offers commonplace:
- King County is 0.9 > down 40% from a year ago (1.6).
- Seattle is 0.9 > down 53% from a year ago (1.9).
- Eastside is 1.0 > down 50% from a year ago (2.0).
2020 – Why you want to be in Seattle
I was able to listen to our chief economist for Windermere yesterday for his annual economic forecasts heading into 2020. The slides below illustrate his forecast for the Seattle area moving into 2020. #realestateislocal
Matthew Gardner, while being one of the brightest minds in our company, knows how to deliver a message.
We all know that most economist are calling for a national recession in the not too distant future. But most are now pushing back for this to begin in mid 2021, be short lived and not focused on the housing market like the great recession.
Matthew feels the next recession will be due to the ongoing trade wars with China and the EU as well as our escalating national debt. With interest rates already at historic lows, the Fed will NOT be able to help end the recession by lowering rates.
But the Seattle area will be somewhat insulated to these national issues in the coming years, here’s why…
- We’re no longer a one trick pony. Like when this sign from 1973 went up during a Boeing slump. Seattle’s industries have diversified. There are now 34 Fortune 500 companies in the Seattle Area compared to 7 just a few years ago! Boeing is still king with over 80,000 employees in the area but their ups and downs don’t threaten the Seattle economy like they did not too long ago.
- The tech industry is the largest employer in the Seattle Metro area and have driven our unemployment #’s down to 3%.
- The other employers to round out the top 5 for the Seattle area are JBLM, Joint Base Lewis McCord (56,000), Microsoft (42,000), Amazon (25,000) and UW, University of WA (25,000). A healthy mix of different industries that are projected to grow their employment by 2.2% next year, again leading the nation.
- All of these growing companies in the Seattle area are why our economy will continue to expand through 2020.
- There is still no signs of a Housing Bubble.
- $18.7 trillion dollars of home equity in the US! We’re not upside down on our mortgages like during the great recession.
- FICO credit scores are over 750 and the average amount of a down payment was 17%.
- So we’re qualified and invested when we purchase our homes.
Gardner Report 2019 – Q3
Our esteemed economist, Matthew Gardner, has released his 3rd quarter assessment of our Western WA real estate market. Enjoy!
Market Update – W-WA down to Seattle
The Gardner Report will tell you what’s happening in WWA real estate and a forecast for 2019.
The other graphs show you how the Seattle real estate market is trending for Q1 of 2019.
Some of the hotter neighborhoods are seeing over +15% price appreciation Feb to Mar 2019.
But most economist don’t feel we’re returning to the craziness of the last few years.
A much more manageable growth rate moving forward for Seattle, that’s nice for everyone, buyers and sellers.
The Big Melt 2019 – This phase could be the most damaging yet.
Here are a few thoughts about melting snow, possible water intrusion and houses from Don McFeron at Scout Building Inspections:
“Gutters and downspouts full of snow and ice can back up if it starts raining before the snow and ice melt.
Water backing up in the gutters can be a real problem if you have a house without much of a roof overhang, because instead of wetting the soffits, it can get into the walls.
Roof downspout in-ground drains can ice up, and then the water coming down the downspouts can spill out next to the foundation. If the house has a finished basement, the water next to the house could get into wall cavities through the footing-to-foundation joint, and any through-wall penetrations or cracks. Make sure that water coming out of the downspouts runs down into functioning in-ground drains, or route the water on the surface far enough away from the foundation that the water cannot run down next to it and get into the basement or the crawl space.
Snow in a basement window well can get up against the windows and window trim. When the snow melts it could get in through small gaps between the windows and trim.
Water from melting snow that has piled up against a door can get in through weep holes and weather stripping as it melts.
When you shovel a walkway, be careful to not pile the snow up against the side of the house.
Snow on a roof can get up under the flashing around skylights, chimneys, plumbing vents, attic ridge vents, etc. Pretty much all of the flashings and roof boots are designed to protect against water that is flowing down hill. Blowing snow can get under the edges of flashings or pack in around them and then drip down behind them as it melts. Usually the amount of water would not be noticeable, but in a situation where there are several inches of snow followed by a quick melt and a lot of rain, it could be a problem.
I cleared the snow off of my roof top deck tonight because the snow was deep enough that when it melted it could have gotten up under the siding, through gaps between the door to the roof or through perimeter flashings and into the house. The through-wall drains were packed with snow so that water may not have been able to drain through them.
Keep dry,
Don”
WW Stats – Up +10.5% – Median Price!
My office, Windermere Wedgwood, publishes statistics for the transactions that we represent each month.
These statistics dive deeper than the basic info you get from online sources.
The pack below shows transaction details like type of financing, cash offers, # of offers and the one I find most interesting this month, median sold price.
The median sold price for the 16 transactions completed by my office in December 2018 was $839k vs. $759k from Dec. 2017 or +10.5%
Even with the Seattle Times headlines about Seattle’s rapid decrease in prices, the numbers don’t lie, +10% vs last year!
https://1drv.ms/b/s!AlaUpVIy4kt9ge4Fxw5kVih5A4RrJA
Where’s Robert…Neighborhood Series – Capitol Hill story
Home buyers need to hurry, here’s why – in Seattle –
My list for what’s driving the Seattle housing market:
* Mortgage Rates will climb when Fed raises prime rate early 2019.
* Amazon announces HQ2 location(s), will Amazonians move? Not likely, Seattle is still one of the most desirable cities in US for tech workers.
* Facebook just announced, increasing office space in Bellevue + S. Lake Union.
* We have 34 Fortune 500 companies in Seattle, was only 7 in 2010!
* Seattle will still be hiring moving into 2019. We’re more than just Amazon.
* Home Prices will continue to increase at new slower rate but Still Increasing.
Because of all of these reasons, I think the Seattle housing market will continue to grow and appreciate.
So, waiting for prices to drop is a long shot and the wild card of increasing Interest Rates will lower buyer’s purchasing power next Spring.
We know where we are now, the future is a gamble with so many variables.
This is why buyer’s should purchase this winter in Seattle.
RBJ.
Seattle’s Rental Cost #3 in nation…
Seattle still at the top for Rental cost, #3.
We’ve had a big runup for Rents over the last few years because of a lot of population growth and a shortage of rental units.
While Seattle is the 3rd most expensive city in the US to rent, median is now $2600/month, our rents are not increasing as quickly anymore.
This is good intel to have for investors and potential buyers waiting on the sidelines to buy in Seattle.
Most economist point to all of the building cranes around Seattle that are flooding the market with new rentals.
This is true but these new rentals are coming on in the upper end of the market so there is and will still be a shortage in Seattle of affordable rentals.
As with our housing prices, things are still rising just not as much as the last few years.
This fact along with the uncertainty of interest rates rising as well, this winter could be the best time to get into the Seattle real estate market.
If you’re waiting for prices to actually decline, for renting or purchasing, it doesn’t look like that will be happening in 2019.
But the slowdown in price appreciation this summer and fall has created a good opportunity to enter the hot Seattle market during a “pause” in the frenzy.
Goto SeattlePI for the complete list/story.
