2020 – Why you want to be in Seattle

I was able to listen to our chief economist for Windermere yesterday for his annual economic forecasts heading into 2020. The slides below illustrate his forecast for the Seattle area moving into 2020. #realestateislocal 

Matthew Gardner, while being one of the brightest minds in our company, knows how to deliver a message.

We all know that most economist are calling for a national recession in the not too distant future. But most are now pushing back for this to begin in mid 2021, be short lived and not focused on the housing market like the great recession.

Matthew feels the next recession will be due to the ongoing trade wars with China and the EU as well as our escalating national debt. With interest rates already at historic lows, the Fed will NOT be able to help end the recession by lowering rates.

But the Seattle area will be somewhat insulated to these national issues in the coming years, here’s why…

  • We’re no longer a one trick pony. Like when this sign from 1973 went up during a Boeing slump. Seattle’s industries have diversified. There are now 34 Fortune 500 companies in the Seattle Area compared to 7 just a few years ago! Boeing is still king with over 80,000 employees in the area but their ups and downs don’t threaten the Seattle economy like they did not too long ago.
  • The tech industry is the largest employer in the Seattle Metro area and have driven our unemployment #’s down to 3%.
  • The other employers to round out the top 5 for the Seattle area are JBLM, Joint Base Lewis McCord (56,000), Microsoft (42,000), Amazon (25,000) and UW, University of WA (25,000). A healthy mix of different industries that are projected to grow their employment by 2.2% next year, again leading the nation.
  • All of these growing companies in the Seattle area are why our economy will continue to expand through 2020.
  • There is still no signs of a Housing Bubble.
    • $18.7 trillion dollars of home equity in the US! We’re not upside down on our mortgages like during the great recession.
    • FICO credit scores are over 750 and the average amount of a down payment was 17%. 
    • So we’re qualified and invested when we purchase our homes.
Posted on December 19, 2019 at 11:06 am
Robert Johnson | Category: Finance, Market Info, Neighborhood | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Market Update – W-WA down to Seattle

The Gardner Report will tell you what’s happening in WWA real estate and a forecast for 2019.
The other graphs show you how the Seattle real estate market is trending for Q1 of 2019.

Some of the hotter neighborhoods are seeing over +15% price appreciation Feb to Mar 2019.
But most economist don’t feel we’re returning to the craziness of the last few years.
A much more manageable growth rate moving forward for Seattle, that’s nice for everyone, buyers and sellers.

Posted on April 26, 2019 at 2:35 pm
Robert Johnson | Category: Market Info | Tagged , , , , , ,

The Big Melt 2019 – This phase could be the most damaging yet.

Here are a few thoughts about melting snow, possible water intrusion and houses from Don McFeron at Scout Building Inspections:

“Gutters and downspouts full of snow and ice can back up if it starts raining before the snow and ice melt.

Water backing up in the gutters can be a real problem if you have a house without much of a roof overhang, because instead of wetting the soffits, it can get into the walls.

Roof downspout in-ground drains can ice up, and then the water coming down the downspouts can spill out next to the foundation. If the house has a finished basement, the water next to the house could get into wall cavities through the footing-to-foundation joint, and any through-wall penetrations or cracks. Make sure that water coming out of the downspouts runs down into functioning in-ground drains, or route the water on the surface far enough away from the foundation that the water cannot run down next to it and get into the basement or the crawl space.

Snow in a basement window well can get up against the windows and window trim. When the snow melts it could get in through small gaps between the windows and trim.

Water from melting snow that has piled up against a door can get in through weep holes and weather stripping as it melts.

When you shovel a walkway, be careful to not pile the snow up against the side of the house.

Snow on a roof can get up under the flashing around skylights, chimneys, plumbing vents, attic ridge vents, etc. Pretty much all of the flashings and roof boots are designed to protect against water that is flowing down hill. Blowing snow can get under the edges of flashings or pack in around them and then drip down behind them as it melts. Usually the amount of water would not be noticeable, but in a situation where there are several inches of snow followed by a quick melt and a lot of rain, it could be a problem.

I cleared the snow off of my roof top deck tonight because the snow was deep enough that when it melted it could have gotten up under the siding, through gaps between the door to the roof or through perimeter flashings and into the house. The through-wall drains were packed with snow so that water may not have been able to drain through them.

Keep dry,

Don”

Posted on February 12, 2019 at 11:05 am
Robert Johnson | Category: Home Ideas, Home Info | Tagged , , , , , ,

WW Stats – Up +10.5% – Median Price!

My office, Windermere Wedgwood, publishes statistics for the transactions that we represent each month.

These statistics dive deeper than the basic info you get from online sources.

The pack below shows transaction details like type of financing, cash offers, # of offers and the one I find most interesting this month, median sold price.

The median sold price for the 16 transactions completed by my office in December 2018 was $839k vs. $759k from Dec. 2017 or +10.5%

Even with the Seattle Times headlines about Seattle’s rapid decrease in prices, the numbers don’t lie, +10% vs last year!

https://1drv.ms/b/s!AlaUpVIy4kt9ge4Fxw5kVih5A4RrJA

Posted on January 17, 2019 at 12:30 pm
Robert Johnson | Category: Market Info | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Hiring in Seattle up +10% vs 2017!

So much for the HQ2/3 impact on the Seattle employment picture.

This workforce report is pulled from LinkedIn data but a good indicator of what’s happening in the broader market.

While Amazon might be slowing down their rate of hiring in Seattle, others are ramping up for 2019 and beyond – Expedia, Facebook and Google to name a few.

Seattle is still a great place to invest your real estate dollar and looks to continue…

Posted on January 9, 2019 at 5:52 pm
Robert Johnson | Category: Market Info | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

It’s Seasonal, really, plus a few other things…

It’s seasonal, really, we’re going through a slow down in the Seattle market but it’s also seasonal.  

What you want to pay attention to in the attached eye chart of a graph is the bottom graph and how every winter (December) for the last 10 years, we see a dramatic slow down in sales.

So yes, the rate of appreciation has slowed in the Seattle area since May 2018. 

But, we also see a slow down in transactional sales every winter.

Put them together and it seems more dramatic and remember we had quite a run up of prices over the last 5 years.

 

Posted on December 4, 2018 at 3:34 pm
Robert Johnson | Category: Market Info | Tagged , , , , , , ,